The Gravel Bike Five Trends in 2024

Pinion gearbox transmission system comes with your transmission kit

For those looking to replace their rear derailleurs, Pinion gearboxes have proven to be a durable, stable alternative, at least on mountain bikes. In 2023, the German company Pinion demonstrated their Smart.Shift hand shift technology, which can do two things: enable the transmission system to shift smoothly under load and bring electronic shifting for the first time.

Given these improvements, I expect we'll be able to see quite a few Pinion gearboxes on gravel road bikes in 2024.

Traditional groupsets with rear derailleurs require the rider to shift gears while pedaling. Anything different from this is a test of rider adaptability, making Pinion’s latest developments easy for most riders to adapt to.

However, electronic shifting groupsets are even more important on gravel bikes. So far, the Pinion gearbox has been controlled mainly by operating elements on the handlebars, which does not make much sense from an ergonomic point of view on a bicycle with drop handlebars. Electronic transmission kits reduce this burden, and electronic transmission kits have advantages in terms of ergonomics and component packaging technology of the transmission system.

So we know gearbox shifting is reliable, but gravel groupsets are generally very reliable too. However, the gearbox transmission system requires almost no maintenance and debugging, and only needs to change a little oil regularly (and recharge the Pinion Smartshift). Especially when used with Gates belts, you don't need to clean the transmission system at all.

In addition, shifting does not require turning the pedals, so gear changes can be performed while the rider is pedaling or coasting.

Transmission systems are not a perfect solution. Not only are they very expensive but also very heavy. While the transmission may not require much maintenance, most repairs will likely have to be done by Pinion itself. It’s not necessarily a choice for a “performance” gravel bike, but it will definitely be used on an “adventure” gravel bike to some extent.

If you do see a gravel road bike equipped with a Pinion gearbox instead of a traditional groupset, there’s a good chance you’ll see it paired with a TRP Hywire disc brake lever and shifter combo. Its electronic transmission shifting is already compatible with the Pinion Smart Shift transmission system for simple combination. The only problem is finding a gravel frame specifically designed for this shifting system!

Shimano and SRAM are the two brands you’re most likely to consider when looking for groupsets for your new gravel bike. But by 2024, I predict that everyone will start to consider other brands.
As mentioned above, TRP has branched out into the world of dropbar shifting groupsets with its Hywire brake shifters. Hywire only refers to its electronic shifting/disc brake manual shifter. While we've seen Hywire shifters matched to Pinion Smart Shift shifting systems in the real world, when we asked TRP if they would consider further compatibility in shifting systems, here's their response: "These shifters will work with It can be used with other transmission systems and is not specific to the Pinion gearbox transmission system.”
I predict that by 2024, in addition to Pinion and TRP being installed more on gravel road bikes, we will also see more gravel road bikes equipped with transmission groupsets from companies such as Microshift and Sensah. The Microshift Sword has proven to be a durable gravel road groupset and is available in 1x and 2x groupset options.
Chinese component manufacturer Sensah actually just rebranded itself on the State Carbon All-Road, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Sensah’s groupsets pop up again on other budget-oriented gravel road bikes.
Italian brand Campagnolo has released their Ekar gravel groupset for 2020. Could we see an electric version of Ekar's gearbox to complement one of the brand's most popular groupsets? I wouldn't be surprised.
More shock absorption / suspension is coming

Chances are your next gravel bike will have some style of suspension. The bikes to look for in 2024 are closer to the likes of the Giant Revolt X, Lauf Seigla or even the State Carbon-All Road.
The Giant sports a more traditional suspension fork, which when paired with a dropper post makes for a smoother ride than most bikes. Lauf Seigla is similar, but its True Grit SL suspension fork uses lightweight leaf springs instead of traditional suspension. Both bikes come with suspension forks, and I predict that in 2024 we’ll see more people buying gravel bikes with front suspension.
With the State Carbon All-Road, riders can choose to equip the bike with a stiff carbon fiber fork or a slightly more expensive suspension fork. I suspect more gravel road bikes in 2024 will have some kind of shock absorbing setup.
What we're really looking forward to, however, is the idea of adaptive damping on a gravel road bike.
Adaptive dampers are fairly new to the cycling world, with only a few brands (notably SRAM) trying to implement them on their bikes. A new patent unearthed by our own Jessie-May Morgan suggests a new "suspension component analysis tool" like Quarq ShockWiz may be coming soon. If it's used on mountain bikes, chances are someone will try to develop it for gravel road bikes.
Imagine adaptive dampers on a gravel road bike. When you're on the road, it knows when it needs to make adjustments; when you're away from it, it changes its operating conditions. While many gravel riders feel good about their skills, adaptive dampers can make the ride smoother.
Will adaptive dampers on gravel road bikes arrive in 2024? I doubt it. But never say never!
Gravel bikes will be officially divided into categories
According to forecasts for 2024:

It's 2024 now. Your gravel road bike isn't just a '90s mountain bike made from modern materials. Unless it's Commencal 365, in which case it totally is. It's also not just a road bike with barely wide tires, which would make sense if it were a Ventum GS1.
How will they be classified, you ask? I propose two categories: performance gravel bikes and adventurous gravel bikes. I never thought these descriptions would roll off my tongue!
People looking to compete in increasingly competitive gravel events are increasingly looking to bikes that are lightweight, have tire widths that just float around 40/45mm, have frame clearance to allow mud to accumulate and some form of aerodynamic advantage. Bikes that already fall into this category include the BMC Kaius, Canyon Grail, Specialized Crux (which is still a speed bike despite its round-tube frameset), and more.
Then there are adventure gravel bike frames, which offer wider clearance, more upright geometry, and more mounting holes. You'll likely find that these bikes will come with some kind of damping, and generally they'll be more adaptable to different types of terrain. These gravel bikes are for riders who just want to go out on long trips and load up on camping gear maybe once a year.
We're already starting to see the differences between the two bikes. In 2024, these names will become industry terms and consumer titles. Separate the two, and brands that don't classify their gravel bikes into one of these categories will begin to decline.
Will a new Shimano gravel electronic shifting group be launched soon?
Shimano released its new GRX 12-speed mechanical groupset last year, bringing a refined and more ergonomically designed group to its 1x drivetrain. As is always the case with Shimano's product line, if they release a mechanical version of a groupset, they'll likely release an electronic version later.
I predict Shimano will release a new electronic version of their gravel groupset. Components such as cassettes, chains, and cranksets are shared between the 11-speed Shimano groupsets; given the current level of sharing between 12-speed 105 Di2 and mechanical groupsets, I would expect components such as cassettes, chains, and cranksets to be shared with the Shimano GRX 12 Shared between speed machine kits.
This also means the groupset is updated to 12-speed, bringing it in line with most of Shimano’s 1x drivetrains. The 1x and 2x drivetrains will likely continue to feature the same 10-45t and 10-51t cassettes, as well as the 2x shifting option shared with the GRX mechanical groupset. In addition, I also predict that GRX Di2 will adopt the wireless solution of other Di2 shifting systems, connecting wireless hand shifters and batteries to the front and rear derailleurs.
Shimano has a history of being methodical when it comes to product releases, so I don’t think GRX Di2 will offer unique features that aren’t found in other Di2 groupsets. But when will it come? There are no clues. If it comes out like GRX Mechanical, we'll see it at Unbound Gravel like we did last year.